W39 - Random Thoughts on the National Day Holiday

• [Pandemic] During National Day the passenger volume fell another 30% year-on-year, and many travelers changed their return-to-Beijing plans because of pop-up notices. Those who went regret it, those who stayed feel relieved, and those who left and returned safely are quietly pleased. There are also many new signals to note. The Beijing Marathon, suspended for two years due to the pandemic, will run next month. The Shanghai round of the F1 Grand Prix, also suspended for three years, will resume next year. High-level foreign affairs activities are gradually resuming. Hong Kong’s inbound quarantine policy changed from 3+4 to 0+3, eliminating hotel quarantine and requiring only three days of home isolation.

• [Book recommendation] The metaverse finally has a definitive, mainstream book: Matthew Ball’s The Metaverse: And How It Will Revolutionize Everything. Ball is hailed as the father of metaverse business; he brought the concept into the public eye and mapped practical paths for the metaverse’s future development. I’ve recently updated my view on books in hot fields: popular topics often produce many poorly made books. Metaverse titles today are comparable to the 1990s books that sketched the internet’s future—most read back then now look silly, though there were prophets like Kevin Kelly. So it’s fine to skip most of them; if you read one, choose a founding author—like The Metaverse: And How It Will Revolutionize Everything—which could become the 1990s’ Out of Control. Domestically, you can look at Zhou Zhanggui’s The Metaverse Big Bang; otherwise, avoid the rest.

• [Data] I reviewed this year’s Meituan Research Institute report “From Digital Life to Digital Society” and want to share a startling data point. According to Hurun’s global unicorn rankings, the number of unicorns in China has been declining in recent years. In terms of stock, Chinese unicorns accounted for 42% of the global total in 2019, once ranking first worldwide; that fell to 39% in 2020 and further to 28% in 2021, only 60% of the U.S. share. In terms of incremental growth, China’s year-on-year growth of new unicorns dropped from 23% in 2020 to 16% in 2021, while the U.S. saw a 54% year-on-year increase in new unicorns in 2021—almost double its 2020 rate.

• [Confidence] I’d previously saved a report I’ve been thinking about and recently had time to reread. It’s a competitive analysis of Meituan and Douyin in the local services market, and its conclusions are uplifting—highly motivating. I hope it helps you decide whether to hold stock or hold cash. Web version:Meituan vs. Douyin in Offline Stores: Differentiated Competition, Stable Landscape, Collaborative Growth.