W14 - Macroscopic Imagination

Last week I attended a product discussion on reducing costs for B2B payments. Inspired by some of Zhiyuan’s viewpoints, I had a few reflections.

When we tackle problems we still tend to look for solutions only within the B2B domain. For cost reduction, we try hard to use the tools at hand, and the solutions we find often have low leverage — for example, increasing transaction volume or marketing. Thinking carefully, is this really the most appropriate thing for our current stage? Or are we using certain approaches simply because we have them and they sound impressive? Two specific insights: first, leverage external momentum. When building an in-house payment capability from 0 to 1, do we have to grind through every step ourselves? What can we borrow — for instance, Meituan’s payment brand recognition and user education can be leveraged via the consumer side. Second, accumulate momentum. The biggest difference between B-side and C-side in terms of funds revolves around settlement funds — a huge resource that we aren’t sufficiently exploiting. To increase the share of balance payments, we must raise the amount of settlements that land in wallets. That requires looking upstream of payments for solutions: when accounts hold more funds, a higher balance-payment ratio will follow naturally. Figuring out how to retain more money may seem like a wallet product issue, but since B2B creates demand, B2B can drive it. Increasing wallet balance retention benefits the entire B-side business, aids conversions for other services like Shengyibao, and improves overall fund closure. You could even consolidate certain prepayment scenarios for business partners within the wallet so balances flow directly into consumption — that has significant potential.

The root problem is our insufficient level of thinking: lacking macro imagination and the ability to sketch a comprehensive roadmap. A core point in "Toward Independent Innovation" is that you must be "independent" before you can "innovate." The book uses China’s auto industry around the year 2000 as an example, examining why in the first 20 years there were mentors yet we still failed, while in the following 20 years, with no one supervising, independent brands emerged. The lesson is that no matter how weak the foundation, you must understand what you lack and what you have. The ability to fully draw the final picture is the decisive factor. A major difference between OKRs and KPIs is that with KPIs you don’t need to know the final picture — you just meet quotas on time — whereas OKRs require you to care about the vision of your boss and partners and work to help them achieve it.