W51 - Metaverse and Blockchain Industry Exchange

Last weekend I attended a talk on the metaverse and then had lunch with several senior figures working in investment banking and blockchain research. I’d like to share some fresh insights.

I had some prior understanding of the metaverse and had given a brief talk at a merchant platform co-creation forum. But online content is mixed in quality. Beyond broadening my perspective, my main purpose this time was to go to the front line to feel the reality of companies and people and to learn about the survival conditions in related industries.

On the metaverse, there is a large gap in current development speed between domestic and international players. Internationally, major firms like Microsoft, Meta, and NVIDIA are the leading forces and have already claimed specific niches within the industry. Domestic players are generally more cautious and smaller companies have limited capabilities — entering now makes it hard to wait for commercial maturity. One presenter said he remains cautious about some technology trends initiated by big firms, since they are essentially mobilizing the world’s resources to experiment for them. He also discussed progress based on web technologies, referring to the evolution from Web 1.0 to Web 3.0: 1.0 — getting online, 2.0 — being online, 3.0 — being present. I think what they are doing now is mainly implementing 3D rendering engine features and riding the metaverse hype. No domestic tech giant has yet taken a bold lead in this area; for example, from a talk by Jintao I learned that Meituan’s gamification team has explored metaverse ideas. Regarding lower-level blockchain exploration, I believe the financial tech group may already be a relatively advanced business group. Overall, whether domestic or international, the metaverse currently sits just past the technological germination phase on the maturity curve and is moving toward an area of inflated expectations.

On blockchain technology, it is almost a consensus that Ethereum has supplanted Bitcoin technically. In investment terms, investors in crypto are now generally cautious. The director of a Bitcoin research institute said 90% of people in the crypto space cannot make a profit — though his own household’s asset mix is about 80% virtual assets and apparently performing well. On regulation, policy toward crypto is strict and currently essentially zero-tolerance. The government remains neutral about blockchain technology itself, but its regulation and coordination in this area have been tight from the start. Trend-wise: 2020 was DeFi, 2021 was NFTs, and 2022 will surely be the year of DAOs. A DAO is a decentralized autonomous organization that redefines how global talent gathers related knowledge and works together.

I also learned about some clever uses of party-related activities and the current state of domestic online regulation; if anyone is interested, message me privately to discuss in person.