W51 - Metaverse and Blockchain Industry Exchange

Last weekend I attended a talk on the metaverse, then had lunch with several senior figures who work in investment banking and blockchain research. I want to share some fresh insights from that conversation.

I had some prior familiarity with the metaverse and have given a brief talk at a merchant platform co-creation session. But online content is mixed; my purpose for going this time, beyond broadening my perspective, was to experience firsthand real companies and people on the front line and learn about the industry's current state of survival.

On the metaverse, there is a large gap in development pace between domestic and international players. Internationally, large companies like Microsoft, Meta, and NVIDIA are leading and have already staked out specific niches within the industry. Domestically, the approach is generally cautious and smaller firms have limited capabilities; entering now makes it unlikely to reach commercial maturity soon. One presenter said he is wary of some technology trends pushed by big companies because, at their core, they are mobilizing global resources to experiment on their behalf. He also discussed progress based on web technologies and referenced the evolution from Web 1.0 to Web 3.0—1.0: getting online, 2.0: being online, 3.0: being present. I think what many are doing now is limited to practical work on 3D rendering engines and riding the metaverse trend. Domestic tech giants have not yet shown bold initiatives; for example, Meituan’s gamification team has explored metaverse ideas, according to a talk by Jintao. Regarding foundational blockchain exploration, I think the financial services group may already be a relatively advanced business group. Overall, whether domestic or international, the metaverse’s position on the technology maturity curve is that it has just passed the nascent stage and is moving into a period of inflated expectations.

On blockchain, technically there is near-consensus that Ethereum has displaced Bitcoin. On investment, crypto investors are generally more cautious now. The director of a Bitcoin research institute said 90% of people in the crypto space cannot make a profit—yet his own household allocates about 80% of its assets to digital assets and seems to be doing well. On regulation, policy toward crypto is strict and currently effectively zero-tolerance. The government is neutral on blockchain technology itself, but regulatory coordination has been tight from the outset. As for trends: 2020 was DeFi, 2021 was NFT, and 2022 will certainly be the year of DAOs. A DAO is a decentralized autonomous organization that redefines how global talent pools assemble, connect knowledge, and work together.

I also learned about some clever uses of red party affairs activities and the current state of domestic internet regulation—message me privately if you’re interested in discussing these offline.