W39 - Miscellaneous Thoughts on the National Day Holiday

• [Pandemic] During National Day the passenger volume dropped another 30% year-on-year; many people changed their plans to return to Beijing after seeing pop-up notices. Those who traveled regret it, those who stayed home are relieved, and those who went and returned safely are quietly pleased. There are also several new signals to note. The Beijing Marathon, canceled for two years due to the pandemic, will run next month. The Shanghai leg of the F1 Grand Prix, suspended for three years, will resume next year. High-level diplomatic activities are gradually restarting. Hong Kong has changed its quarantine policy for incoming travelers from 3+4 to 0+3, removing hotel quarantine and requiring only three days of home isolation.

• [Book recommendation] The metaverse finally has an authoritative, well-grounded book: Matthew Ball’s The Metaverse: And How It Will Revolutionize Everything. Ball is regarded as the business father of the metaverse; he brought the concept into public view and mapped an action plan for its future development. I’ve recently updated my view on books in trendy fields—many are slapdash. Metaverse books today can be likened to 1990s books that sketched the internet’s blueprint; in retrospect most were nonsense, though there were prophets like Kevin Kelly. So you can skip most—if you read one, choose an original author, such as The Metaverse: And How It Will Revolutionize Everything, which could become the 1990s’ Out of Control. Domestically, you can look at Zhou Zhanggui’s The Metaverse Big Bang; others aren’t worth your time.

• [Data] Reviewing Meituan Research Institute’s report “From Digital Life to Digital Society” released this year, I want to share a startling data set. According to Hurun’s global unicorn rankings, China’s number of unicorns has declined steadily in recent years. In stock terms, Chinese unicorns made up 42% of the global total in 2019—once the highest in the world—falling to 39% in 2020 and further to 28% in 2021, just 60% of the US figure. In terms of incremental growth, China’s year-on-year growth of new unicorns dropped from 23% in 2020 to 16% in 2021, while the US saw a 54% year-on-year increase in new unicorns in 2021—almost double 2020’s rate.

• [Confidence] I had previously saved a research note I kept thinking about, and recently found time to reread it. It analyzes the competition between Meituan and Douyin in the local life market; its conclusions are encouraging—an uplifting strategic argument that I hope helps you decide whether to hold stocks or cash. Web version:Meituan vs Douyin in on-site business: differentiated competition, stable landscape, collaborating for market expansion.